Making Decisions in Uncertain Times

Uncertainty seems to be the predominant theme I hear these days. The experience can weigh on a leader, even to the point of paralysis. Consider this scenario.

It’s early—before the sun rises, before the first meeting kicks off. A leader looks in the mirror, not quite ready to face the gravity of the day’s work. The air feels heavy with responsibility. A deadline looms. The pressure to get it right, relentless. Critics and competitors circle, ready to pounce on a mistake. The team is waiting, too, for guidance, clarity, direction. But first, as the team’s leader, you must look in the mirror and make the call.

Feeling that pressure? I’ve been there. Building my own consulting and coaching company, I feel it, too. Working with partners, I hear it across industries. Many of our clients say they want to wait, just kick the can down the road until the dust settles. The temptation makes sense in these uncertain times, but we know down deep the dust is not going to settle.

Earlier in my career, I wished I had a crystal ball. During some volatile years at the company I led an internal service group, and I didn’t always get it right. Those decisions weighed heavily and motivated me to learn — not only about the subject matter but decision making itself.

Here’s what I have learned over time: Leadership isn’t about certainty — it’s about clarity. It’s about making the best decision possible with what you know now, sharing the direction, and owning the outcome, win or lose, as an opportunity for learning.

When it feels like unpredictability is your only constant, here are three leadership principles for making decisions:

1. Realize Leaders Must Make Decisions.
   Waiting for perfect information isn’t an option. Decisiveness means acting despite doubt. As Columbia professor and author Rita McGrath teaches, clear decisions create guardrails. A leader’s decisions help the team understand priorities and boundaries. Even if your decision is to stick with the current state and wait until a future date, that call to keep the status quo is a decision. Leadership isn’t about having all the answers; it’s about providing direction when others need it most.

2. Invest in a Process.
   You can’t control uncertainty, but you can rely on a decision-making framework that holds steady through ambiguity. Annie Duke, professional poker player and decision-making expert, reminds us to focus on decision quality, not just outcomes. Invest time upfront to develop a disciplined, step-by-step process. Set criteria in advance and use the data to guide you. Even if it feels uncomfortable to follow such slow thinking right now, in the thick of things, you need a process. The structure stabilizes your thinking, which is especially important when stakes are high and pressure builds.

   
   If something still feels off after considering the decision with your process, realize that this gut feeling might be signaling a gap and it might be worth revisiting your inputs and analysis. Stay curious and intellectually humble, but don’t let that feeling of unease or doubt paralyze you. Recognize what you are feeling could be reasonable doubt from a fear of the unknown. Trust in your process to make a decision when the situation is complex.

3. A Leader Must Use Outcomes to Improve the Process—Not Assign Blame.
   A bad outcome doesn’t always mean you made a bad decision. There is a difference between sloppy decisions and good decisions with poor outcomes. Sometime, we have bad luck or uncontrollable circumstances. Great leaders treat every outcome as a learning opportunity. Amy Edmondson, the Harvard professor and author, has research showing that teams perform better when they feel safe to analyze failures openly. When leaders guide their teams to learn from negative outcomes —rather than bury them—they build resilience, spark renewed creativity, and gain collective confidence. That sense of confidence allows your team to move forward, collaborate across the organization, and connect with stakeholders to prepare for whatever comes next. It makes the team stronger.

What about that leader starting their day early? They don’t need certainty. They need courage to make a call, a process to guide deliberate thinking, and a commitment to grow from every outcome.

So, take heart. You, too, can move forward without that crystal ball. Instead, build your resolve to decide, invest in your process, and adapt based on what you learn.

And if you’re ready to sharpen your decision-making skills, get in touch with us Best Shot Consulting LLC for coaching and leadership development services. Or check out the next blog post for a free reading list featuring works by Annie Duke, Kathy Pearson, Rita McGrath, Daniel Kahneman, and Amy Edmondson. Let’s keep growing together.